Paper industry environmental verification is not relaxed, 2018 will still be "Luoyang paper expensive"

In 2017, paper prices fluctuated and fluctuated, leading to a polarization of paper companies. The environmental turmoil has allowed small paper companies to switch production, and large-scale listed paper companies have earned a lot of money. In 2017, the net profit surged and the stock price doubled. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the reporter judged the paper market in 2018 from various aspects such as raw materials, supply and environmental verification. From the perspective of all parties, it is still possible to "Luoyang paper expensive" in 2018.

Paper price fluctuates at a high level

The reporter reviewed the price trends of a variety of new paper products. Taking coated paper, double-adhesive paper, white cardboard and corrugated paper as examples, the prices of the above-mentioned several varieties reached the high point of this round in November 2017. The current average price of the above four paper varieties is 7395 yuan / ton, 7835 yuan / ton, 7027 yuan / ton, 4515 yuan / ton, in addition to corrugated paper, the price of other varieties is still oscillating around the high point of the year. After reaching the peak of the year in November, corrugated paper quickly fell to near the annual low.

“The fourth quarter and the eve of the Spring Festival are the traditional peak season for the paper industry. Paper prices have not been loosened, but it has not been raised again, but it is unexpected.” A paper industry official said, “corrugated paper is in 'double eleven', 'double After the 12th shopping peak, demand will be significantly slowed down, and the recycling of subsequent cartons will also make up for the shortage of raw materials to a certain extent."

At the raw material end, the price of imported pulp continued to rise slightly. Imports of waste paper continued to decline. At present, the total amount of waste paper imports per month has been reduced by more than half since the beginning of 2017, and the price of imported waste paper has remained stable at a high level. On the other hand, the national waste price (the yellow paper A grade for example) peaked in October 2017, and the price per ton was around 3,000 yuan. The current new price is 2,100 yuan / ton, still at the 2017 high.

The skyrocketing price of this round of paper began at the end of 2016. The products that entered the skyrocketing channel were corrugated paper with waste paper as the main raw material and white-faced cattle cardboard. Taking corrugated paper as an example, from the end of 2016, the price of corrugated paper has soared from 3,100 yuan/ton to 6,300 yuan/ton, and the increase has more than doubled. Its price trend is almost the same as the trend of waste paper prices except for October and December.

The price of paper is still rising

On December 25, 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection announced the first batch of imported waste paper quotas in 2018. Compared with the same period in 2017, the number of approved paper enterprises in the first batch of public notices in 2018 decreased by about 88.46%, and the approved waste paper quota was approved. Reduced by about 91.33%. Among them, Nine Dragons Paper, Lee & Man Paper, and Shanying Paper also occupied the vast majority of the first batch of approved quotas, and the leading enterprises have obvious advantages in quota allocation.

For the first batch of quotas in 2018, Guojin Securities believes that the total amount of quota approval for the whole year of 2018 will be less certain than that of 2017. The average price of waste paper and packaging paper in 2018 is still expected. Higher than 2017. A paper industry person also expressed the same view: "Environmental protection is becoming more and more strict. In the case that the country's waste can not completely replace imports, the supply side will still have some impact."

In addition, in August 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the “Environmental Control Standard for Imported Solid Wastes for Use as Raw Materials (Consultation Draft)”, which stipulated that the general impurity content of imported waste paper should be reduced from 1.5% to 0.3%. This means that the standard for imported waste paper is more stringent and the share of imports will shrink further.

“The price was stable in the fourth quarter of last year, but it may not be the end of the strong.” The aforementioned people said, “The market has certain conductivity, and the price is now stable. However, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the paper mills have entered the shutdown maintenance period, plus inventory control, which also gives the festival. After the price increase left more space, and the eve of the Spring Festival is often the peak period of rising paper prices."

The profitability of the listed companies in the paper industry in the first three quarters of 2017 was quite impressive, and most of the net profit levels of the revenues maintained a sharp upward trend. Listed companies have also made steady progress in this round of market, and there has not been a phenomenon of new capacity on the market. The relationship between supply and demand will not change significantly in a short period of time. On the other hand, the trend of strict environmental protection in 2018 is not diminished. Since the 1st, the environmental protection tax boots have landed, and the future environmental protection non-standard enterprises are nowhere to go. In addition, a stable supply and demand relationship, shrinkage of waste paper imports, downtime renovation, and enhanced bargaining power will also escort the price of paper in 2018.